The biggest source of future red ink will be Medicare. In second place is Social Security.
How can the government pay off these obligations? It can't. The possibility does not exist. The government needs a spare $222 trillion to invest in private companies. This investment must make a return of at least 5 percent to provide the money needed to pay meet the government's obligations. There is no $222 trillion available, and no capital markets large enough to absorb $222 trillion.
Conclusion: the US government will default.
"No, no!" you may be thinking. "This cannot be true. Why, the full faith and credit of the government lies behind these obligations." This is the correct verb: lies. It is also the correct noun.
It is all a pile of lies. These lies are IOUs.
The welfare state's Ponzi scheme economics will catch up with the politicians. It will catch up with everyone who is dependent on the welfare state. All over the Western world, this is statistically inevitable.
We wonder why people begin Ponzi schemes. The schemes always blow up. They cannot survive. The numbers tell us that. Why don't the initiators see what must inevitably hit them?
The financial world was amazed at Bernie Madoff. How did he fool smart rich people for so long, and for so much money?
Simple. He copied Congress.